Foreign Exchange Reserves To $3 Trillion Are Good Things, And Foreign Exchange Reserves May Need Less.

Professor Fang Gang is a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, Ph.D. in economics, Professor of HSBC School of business, Peking University, and a researcher at the Chinese Academy of social sciences. He is a national outstanding young and middle-aged expert. He is currently the vice president of the China Economic Restructuring Research Association, director of the China reform research foundation, director of the National Economic Research Institute, and President of the Comprehensive Development Research Institute of China (Shenzhen). He has studied in Harvard University and National Economic Research Bureau of the United States.

Geopolitical events escalated this week, and global inflation expectations were cooling down. The Trump administration did not recognize China as a currency manipulator. France's presidential election was the first round of the election. It was affected by energy prices, the US CPI and PPI ratio shifted, Global trade differentiation, and the slowdown in exports of China's neighboring economies. Under such a macro trend, the global market, monetary policy, exchange rate mechanism and real estate regulation and other hot topics were interviewed by famous economist: Fang Gang.

The last round is mainly

The dollar is expected to strengthen, and the next wave of Trump's policy and fiscal policy will come out again. In the long run, the dollar will weaken. Trump will have to lower taxes and increase spending.

The trend of the US dollar depends on Trump's speed of spending, the speed of tax reduction, and the speed of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. These are all variables.

He predicted that Trump would definitely reduce taxes and increase investment in infrastructure. So in the short term, the US dollar will still be strong. Tax cuts and infrastructure investment will attract countries to invest in the United States, which will increase the US dollar and make the US dollar stronger.

At the same time, the international crude oil and commodities will also have a strong trend, but they are not optimistic about gold and the euro.

Since the outbreak of credit risk in March, the central bank has repeatedly stressed this year.

The tone is moderate and neutral.

Do you think there is any possibility of reversal of the monetary policy keynote in the context of frequent debt risk? Fang Gang said: "if China does not default, it will be abnormal. If there is such a high leverage ratio, there may be some risks.

Many of the problems of default are not monetary policy. They are so many overcapacity in the past few years.

If the leverage ratio is higher and the risk of default is 1%, you will see more cases.

At the end of 3, the scale of social financing scale was 162 trillion and 820 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year, which is higher than the 12% growth target.

Fang Gang said: interest rate cut is not necessarily true, but the drop is normal.

We used to have a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, increasing hundreds of billions of foreign exchange reserves every year, giving out so much money, because foreign exchange reserves are the basic currency, and I give up so much money, so we take it back and freeze it. This is the concept of reserve ratio at that time.

So now our foreign exchange reserves have been reduced, from 4 trillion to 3 trillion, and the next part may be even lower. As a result, our reserve ratio should go down, otherwise our currency will not be enough.

Now we don't need it. The RMB is gradually internationalized, so it's less good. We used to say that 4 trillion of us were loaned to Americans, and the Americans were fighting Iraq, and its efficiency was so low and the income was so low. So I don't think there is a problem of foreign exchange protection. So, is it necessary to maintain the exchange rate? I don't think we need to maintain the exchange rate. China will not fix the exchange rate again. China will not be linked to the US dollar again. China must be moving towards flexible exchange rate gradually, so there is nothing to guarantee.

It is not just us, the former Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom are all such a reason, it does not want to see money, and foreign exchange reserves overnight big waves, big diving, big appreciation or big devaluation, foreign exchange reserves suddenly reduced a lot, therefore, will take some measures to make it relatively smooth pition, exchange rate, or external storage, or better, a smooth pition.

I think some of the phenomena that have been observed in the market recently belong to this category, and they do not belong to them. They are no longer guaranteed. Chinese enterprises, enterprises and individuals all over the world are faced with the foreign exchange rate which is changing every day. Why do our enterprises need to have a fixed exchange rate? In this sense, flexible exchange rate is our system in the future.

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