First And Second Tier Real Estate Market Transactions Continue To Be Active, Increase The Size Of More Places To Stabilize Expectations

On April 20, Zhang Lin, a buyer of Shanghai Ruihong new city, received a phone call from an intermediary asking how many points she had (since February 2021, Shanghai's new housing lottery has adopted the point system). When she heard that Zhang Lin's score was 60, the intermediary began to dissuade her from taking part in the lottery with more than 65 points.

Like Zhang Lin, it is not a case of being "dissuaded". Recently, due to information asymmetry, buyers in Shanghai's new market have even missed the call. In fact, "one room is hard to find" has spread from Shanghai and other first tier cities to surrounding second tier and third tier cities.

Recently, Ningbo, Hefei, Hangzhou and other places have introduced new policies of regulation and control. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that similar regulation and control shows that all localities have the direction of actively tightening and actively stabilizing real estate. In the past, many local governments were still lazy in their regulation and control. This year, their enthusiasm for regulation and control has increased significantly. This is a positive guidance and will help to further solve the housing problems in big cities. Similar regulation also shows that big cities do face the pressure of rising house prices, which can help to promote stable development.

Liquidity tightening

On April 19, Hefei housing provident fund management center issued the supplementary notice on Further Strengthening the management of housing provident fund withdrawal, which clearly proposed that the same housing should not be withdrawn due to frequent transaction withdrawal (more than twice within 12 months).

The above provisions are mainly to prevent and crack down on the illegal act of using the same set of housing resources to cheat and withdraw provident fund, strictly regulate the conditions for the extraction of provident fund, and curb speculation and speculation. In addition to Hefei, Nantong, Guiyang, Wuhan, Foshan and other places have recently tightened the liquidity of provident fund.

Yan Yuejin believes that the liquidity risk of provident fund is related to the phenomenon of "robbing houses" in some cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta recently.

In addition, more and more cities, such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shaoxing and Dongguan, are strictly investigating the illegal entry of business loans and consumer loans into the property market.

Zubingyang, an analyst at Tongce Research Institute, believes that recently, Ningbo, Nanjing and Hefei, the hot cities in the Yangtze River Delta, have successively introduced various real estate related policies, with the aim of calming the heat and stabilizing the market. Among them, Ningbo and Hefei, as the cities that have been interviewed recently, have significantly increased the intensity of policy regulation and control. Ningbo has expanded the scope of purchase restrictions and strengthened the management of housing transactions; Hefei has implemented the degree system, restrictions on the purchase of second-hand houses in hot areas, and "lottery + sales restriction" of hot buildings, which reflects the government's determination to stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations.

It can be said that the liquidity of provident fund has also been tightened after the Ministry of housing and urban rural development has made interviews, rectifying intermediary agencies, restricting second-hand housing, tightening business loans and centralized land supply. In the past March, the number of regulatory policies for the national property market was as high as 48 times. In February, the number of real estate regulation policies was as high as 45 times in a single month, more than 42 times in January. In the first quarter of 2021, the total number of real estate regulation policies reached 135.

"The last madness"?

In the past week, among the first tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou saw a significant rise in transaction volume, with Beijing doubling month on month. According to the research data of crerui real estate, nearly 80% of the transactions in second tier cities are higher, especially in Chengdu, Wuhan, Nanjing and Qingdao. The transactions in Chongqing and Hangzhou have dropped slightly, but the overall level is still high. The transaction in Changsha has recovered from the bottom, increasing by 49%. Transactions in 14 third and fourth tier cities were up and down, with Dongguan and Zhaoqing performing well, with a month on month increase of more than 100%.

Huzhou, known as the "back garden of Shanghai", has a situation of "one room is difficult to find" in the major sales offices, and the sales staff themselves are involved in the purchase of housing. Wang Wei bought two suites in Huzhou last year. After the Spring Festival, the two apartments he bought have increased by 100000 yuan respectively. According to Wang Wei, some projects have to be ordered in advance even if they are purchased internally. According to the statistics of the third-party organizations, the unit prices of the top five sales buildings in Huzhou have exceeded 10000 units since January this year, and the total number of first-class units has exceeded 500, setting a new record in recent years.

Huzhou central city has a total inventory of 3.1 million cubic meters. According to the average de stocking rate of 440000 cubic meters / month in the past six months, the depolarization cycle is only 7 months. For some sectors, such as the eastern new city, which is supported by talent policy, the depolarization cycle is only 6 months, which is equivalent to that of Hangzhou, and it is also one of the cities with the lowest cycle in the third and fourth tier cities.

The second, third and fourth tier cities around the first tier cities are accelerated to disappear due to the factors such as the serious first-hand inverted hanging, the rotation of plate house prices, and the repeated occurrence of high prices. For example, in Nanjing, it is difficult to find a room in the hot plate. In Hexi, southern New Town and Jiangbei core area, 80% down payment can not stop the influx of people who buy houses. It is understood that buyers from Yancheng and Chuzhou around Nanjing are also waiting for an opportunity to enter the market recently.

A person from a real estate enterprise said that the current market is very similar to the "last madness" before the intensive regulation cycle, but "one house is hard to find" does not exist in every city. The important task of its real estate enterprises this year is to accelerate the de capitalization, maintain the sales scale and reduce the leverage at the same time. "Cities with fast urbanization should strive for more sales, while cities with slow urbanization should adjust their prices according to the situation. In general, it is necessary to accelerate the de urbanization." But he also revealed that real estate enterprises are common. This year, while selling houses, they should also control investment and reserve land strictly in accordance with the ability to remove land.

And in Zhang Lin's view, worse is that developers began to require customers with full payment ability to buy first. But now the major banks in Shanghai have begun to strictly check the operating loans, blocking the channel to solve the short-term shortage of funds. The people who just need to be replaced really feel the effectiveness of regulation and control. (at the request of the interviewer, Zhang Lin and Wang Wei are pseudonyms)